by Paul Michel

Yes, yes, yes ... everyone is most excited about the 10 k's, particularly after Solinsky shocked the running world with his 26:59 debut last year.

But the Payton Jordan is stacked this year across all distance races.

From Alistair Cragg in the men's 5k to Anna Pierce and Sara Hall in the women's 1500, there are big names throughout. German Fernandez isn't even in the fastest heat of the 1500, for heaven's sake! That should be telling of just how competitive these races are … or how well some runners can fib their way into fast heats. But I digress …

Here are my picks for tomorrow's 1500, 3k steeplechase and 5k races (the 10k was covered Friday by Kevin Liao). I got my dinner served to me at the Boston Marathon (my picks : a 6th place and a DNF). But I've learned from it … made the necessary adjustments ... and I am pretty certain these picks are all golden. And if they aren't, I expect you all to let me know about it. Anonymously, of course.

OK, enough introduction. Let's get right into it.

Women's 1500

Pick : Anna Pierce

She is the only one in the field with a sub-4 PR in the 1500. Morgan Uceny and Malindi have both run 4:02's, with a few runners having 4:05 personal bests.

It is Pierce's versatility that I like. She has 1:58.8 800 speed, and she obviously has great strength, with her stippling background. She was outleaned at the BAA Elite Mile in part because she was hesitant to lead (claiming she doesn't like to set the pace early.) With so many great runners in the field, she won't have to.

As with all races tonight, the common theme could be that many runners are looking to achieve early 'A' Standards for next year. This could (hopefully!) mean that most of the races will go out honestly.

If it does, I'll take Pierce kicking barely over Uceny. With Sara Hall's 15:27 5k at Mt. Sac, she could be a factor (although she is also entered in the steeple) … but I don't know if she has the wheels in a kick over the mentioned contenders.



Men's 1500

Pick : Lopez Lomong, Andrew Bayer 2nd

I am sort of forced to pick here. Lomong has a 3:32.20 PR and kicks well off slower paces. Basically, I don't see any scenario where he isn't able to respond well enough for the win.

If Lomong weren't in the race, however, it would be incredibly difficult to decide between the rest of the field. So I will focus more on my 2nd place pick. I'll take Bayer as bridesmaid.

AJ Acosta, Ben Blankenship and Mark Matusak ran 3:39's last year, while Andrew Bumbalough, Evan Jager and Stephen Pifer all had 3:38-low breakouts in 2009. But I like Bayer's 3:57 indoors this past winter and his 13:32 5k at Stanford several weeks ago.

Sidenote : Here's to hoping German Fernandez gets bumped up to the fast heat. Say what you will about him, he needs to be in the fast heat. If he can keep those shoes on, he could be right up there.

Women's Steeple

Pick : Lisa Aguilera

Aguilera had the US's #1 time last year, with her 9:24 PR. She won US Outdoor's as well. She has solid 4:17 1500 speed, if it comes down to a kick.

Nicole Bush, formerly of Michigan State, could pose a potential threat, as she was US #3 last year and she has a solid 9:39 PR from '09.

Sara Hall is entered here and in the 1500. If she runs here, it could be interesting. She has a 9:50 from early this year, but she has been running well of late and could breakout.

Still, I'll go with Aguilera in a pretty comfortable win.

Men's Steeple

Pick : Derek Scott

The 2010 Puma Mile champion is just now getting his steeple legs under him. He won the Mt. Sac steeplechase in dominating fashion, looking completely under control the entire race until unleashing a deadly kick over the final 400 meters to finish in an 8:31 PR.

It's an upset pick, with Olympian Billy Nelson (who just ran a great 3:40 1500), and 8:22 Ben Bruce (US #2 last year). Furthermore, Kyle Alcorn (8:21) and Josh McAdams (8:21) are always mainstays in any American steeple.

But it seems to me that Derek Scott is just starting to really figure this all out. He has great finishing speed and he goes in with absolutely nothing to lose. I expect some feedback on this one. Let's hear it …



Women's 5k

Pick : Erin Donohue

Unless I am missing something, this is Donohue's debut at 5k distance. If so, this is the place to do it, as magical things seem to happen at Stanford.

Donohue obviously has more than enough speed (4:03.49 1500 last year) to win any kicker's race. Also, she has a 9:07 3k PR, so I don't worry too much about her strength. Angela Bizzarri looked terrific at Mt. Sac (15:27 PR and in contention the entire race) and has an 8:57 3k PR, so she could be very dangerous.

Also, Mika Yoshikawa is the 3-time Japanese Champion at this distance, with a 15:28 PR. There is something to be said for runners that just seem to win races, not just put up times.

But I'll still take Donohue to hang around until the final lap, then use that 1500 kick for the win.

Men's 5k

Pick : Alistair Cragg

Alistair Cragg will be fiercer than the aggro crag out there, after his DNF in the Boston Marathon. His recent 60:49 at the NYC half shows his great fitness, and his PR is head and shoulders better than the rest of the field (13:07 from '07). While his best is "only" 13:16 since then, that still beats anyone else in the field.

Having said all of that, there are several dangerous Americans in the field if the aggro crag falters. Elliott Heath has a killer kick and Chris Derrick has run great here before. Furthermore, they both slept in their own beds last night (that has to count for something … I guess depending on whether they have comfortable beds or not.)

Dan Huling has progressed amazingly the past several years, and his 2010 was spectacular (13:24 and 8:13 steeple). He has stepped it up to the next level, and I don't think anyone would be surprised with a win here. Diego Estrada from NAU has already run 13:29 this year indoors, and ran a 3:41 1500 PR at Mt. Sac.

You know what … I am changing picks. I know, I know … "can he do that?" But I just started thinking about Elliott Heath's kick again. I can't deny it. And he will have a raucous home crowd behind him if it's a race late. Yeah, his PR is only 13:29, but he's poised for a low 13:20. Elliott Heath is going to defeat the aggro crag.

New Pick : Elliott Heath