Courtesy Image of Sport

OXY Heat Sheets


Here is a preview of Saturday's USATF High Performance meet, held at Occidental University.  Last year's version produced a 1:46 800 winner, 10 guys under 3:41 in the 1500, and a 2:01/4:06 winner on the women's side. This year figures to be even better, with some of the most elite 800/1500 fields we've seen on American soil this year. Just to name a few, Will Leer, Nick Symmonds, Andrew Wheating, Lopez Lomong, Shannon Rowbury, Jemma Simpson, Sally Kipyego and Sara Hall will be competing, with the intention of all to put up fast times and maybe achieve some 'A' Standards.

Here are the events with the top seeds in each field (entry times may not be accurate). We have haplessly attempted to predict the winners before (the Stanford disaster here). But we're getting back on the horse, so to speak. Here are our picks as OXY champions this Saturday.

 

Women's 800

Top Seeds

 

Maggie Vessey 1:59

Hazel Clark 1:59

Alice Schmidt 2:01

Heather Kampf 2:02

Geena Gall 2:02

Erica Moore 2:02

Lindsey Schnell 2:03

Jenny Simpson NT

Stephanie Cherigo 2:04

 

PM : Molly Beckwith was going to be my pick here, but she recently scratched. Therefore, I'm going Maggie Vessey. Runner-up at USA's last year, Vessey ran 2:02 at Mt. Sac in mid April. Here's to hoping that the veteran from Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo is regaining that 1:57 form from 2009. Likewise, middle distance veteran Alice Schmidt has run 2:01 this year (as well as a 2:01 second-place finish here last year). Call me old-fashioned, but having followed Vessey and Schmidt since their college days, I am pulling for one of the veterans here.

KL : Alice Schmidt has looked good so far this season, running 2:01.94 over 800 meters and 4:09.85 for 1500 meters. If the race goes fast, look for her to take charge, but if things are a bit slower, Maggie Vessey’s sit-and-kick tactics may bode her well.

 

Women's 1500

Top Seeds

 

Jemma Simpson 4:06

Sally Kipyego 4:06

Nicole Sifuentes 4:06

Katie Follett 4:08

Shannon Rowbury NT

Marina Muncan 4:09

Trenierre Moser 4:11

Gabriella Anderson 4:12

Francis Koons 4:13

 

PM : I've hopped on the Follett bandwagon. I mean, the girl is a beast. She broke out in a huge way at Payton Jordan, and she displayed a ferocious kick. However, Kipyego soloed a 4:06 at Hayward Field in late April, and outkicked Shalane Flanagan in the 10k at Payton Jordan. Then there's Jemma and Rowbury. Jemma's gone 4:08 already and was a close second here last year in 4:06.39, and although Shannon doesn't have an outdoor time yet, a win here would surprise no one. Also, Moser won the 800 here in 2:01.33 last year. OK, I've thought it out. Gotta go Follett. She is on the up and up, and she dates one of my best friends. That's the tiebreaker. Is that irrelevant? Absolutely. But I've been in a slump, so maybe it's the kind of thing I need to get back into the winner's column.

KL : Shannon Rowbury is coming down from altitude for her first race of the season, factors that would normally lend to a below average effort. However, she’s proven to be a gamer time-and-time again and should be prepped for a win and fast time. Look for things to get interesting if the pace is slow with 800 meter specialists Jemma Simpson and Phoebe Wright in the field.

 

Women's 3k Steeple

Top Seeds

 

Minori Hayakari 9:48

Sarah Hall 9:48

Deliah Decre 9:51

Lisa Aguilera 9:52

Lindsey Allen 9:53

Nicole Bush 9:58

Genevieve Lalonde 9:59

Sandra Lopez 10:03

Stephanie Reilley 10:06

Stephanie Pancost 10:11

 

PM : The steeple here is going to be great. Hall impressed me with her steeple at Payton Jordan. While she let Emma Coburn get away from her a bit too much, she closed well the final 600 meters to close out in a sub 9:50. Particularly after the road mile victory in Minnesota, I like her closing speed. She's sort of been in between events her whole career, but I hope she's found her calling here. I think she's ready for a 9:35-9:40. Can never count out Aguilera though. An off-day for her at Payton was still a 9:52. In the past few weeks, how much closer to that 9:24 form from 2010 has she gotten?

KL : Sara Hall has made considerable progress in the steeplechase this year, bringing her PR down to 9:48.85 at Payton Jordan. If her steep improvement grade continues, expect another good performance from her. Hayakari Minori of Japan is an unknown with a best time of 9:33.93 from 2008 but has not improved since.

 

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Men's 800

Top seeds

 

Jackson Kivuva 1:43.3

David Torrence 1:45.0

Duane Solomon 1:45.0

Tyler Mulder 1:45.5

Lopez Lomong 1:45..5

Cory Primm 1:45.7

Darren St. Clair 1:46.0

Rob Novak 1:46.0

Andrew Ellerton 1:46.22

Richard Jones 1:46.5

Tetlo Emmen 1:46.6

Prince Mumba 1:46.8

Dustin Emrani 1:47.0

Brian Gagnon 1:47.0

Lachlan Renshaw 1:47.0

 

PM : This is the one I'm looking most forward to. I just watched Tyler Mulder effortlessly split a sub 1:45 at the Oregon Twilight (in the OTC vs. Oregon DMR), so you gotta love his chances. Torrence made himself a 1:45 800 runner last year, and could have the best strength out there with his miler background (3:34 for 1500). And while Lopez is an Olympian, his closing speed still looked a little rusty in the Payton Jordan 1500. But I'm going to go out on a limb and take the guy that ran 1:43 last year, Jackson Kivuva. I know…gutsy. Kivuva ran 1:46 low indoors and could be ready to be back in that 1:43-1:44 range at OXY.

KL : Austin Track Club teammates Jackson Kivuva and David Torrence are coming from altitude in New Mexico and likely aren’t the sharpest at this point. Russell Brown has run some great 1500 races so far but I see this half-mile is more of a workout than him being in contention for the win. Tyler Mulder of the OTC appears to be most fit thus far in 2011 with his solid 1:45.73 personal best in Australia in March and I’ll take him for the win. UCLA senior Cory Primm should be one to look out for as he’s priming himself for NCAA regionals next week.

 

Duane Solomon is the class of this second heat especially with his 1:46.16 effort in Daegu last week. Khadevis Robinson is now coaching at UNLV so it will be interesting to see how training is going with his new responsibilities. Both like pushing the pace so look out for a fast time out of this one.

 

Men's 1500

Top Seeds

 

Andrew Wheating 3:31

Leo Manzano 3:32

Nathan Brannan 3:34

Garrett Heath 3:36

Will Leer 3:36

Matt Tegenkamp 3:36

Nick Symmonds 3:37

Andrew Bumbalough 3:37

Evan Jaeger 3:37

Matt Lincoln 3:38

Tommy Schmitz 3:39

Geoff Martinson 3:39

Billy Nelson 3:39

Kyle Miller 3:39

Liam Boylan-Pett 3:39

Taylor Milne 3:39

Pablo Solares 3:40

Jordan McNamara 3:41

 

PM : Nevermind … THIS race is the one to watch. This is going to be crazy. You have pure milers like Manzano and Leer, half-milers in Wheating, Symmonds and Brannen, a 5k guy (and now 10k) in Matt Tegenkamp, and even a stippler in Billy Nelson … all colliding over one distance.

 

Although the race is incredibly stacked, I'm still going to go with Wheating. Manzano won last year in 3:36.74, as 10 guys broke 3:41. It should be even faster this year, with Wheating Symmonds, Heath, Tegenkamp, etc. added to the mix. Wheating looked like he was jogging in the DMR at Oregon Twilight, and still ran 4:04. He probably could have been eating a sandwich. That's how relaxed he was. While that DMR was his first race since last outdoors and he could potentially be a little rusty, rusty for a 3:31 guy could still be 3:35. 

KL : Olympic silver medalist Nick Willis serving as the race’s rabbit signals that it will be very fast. The top three seeds Andrew Wheating, Leo Manzano, and Lopez Lomong could very well be the American team in Daegu. Wheating just opened up his season at the Oregon Relays two weeks ago but looked easy in winning the DMR. His ability to finish well off a fast pace should give him the edge on Saturday at Oxy.

 

Men's Steeple

Top Seeds

 

Matt Williams 8:44

Alex Genest 8:33

Stephen Pifer NT

 

PM : (Before Jukka Keskisalo was added) I'll take Genest. Heading into Thursday, there are only 3 guys entered, as most elite American steeplers are preferring to save themselves for Prefontaine. I'll take the Canadian, as they are just the coolest (Justin Bieber). But if Pifer (3:39 1500) can figure steepling out, with his strength background at CU, he could be dangerous.

(After Keskisalo was added) Jukka Keskisalo has just been added to the field. Changing my pick to Jukka. He ran 8:10 in 2009 (8:30 last year). He's the absolute class of the field. Enough said.
 

KL : Finn Jukka Keskisalo has a personal best of 8:10.67 and should take this small six-athlete field. The talented Stephen Pifer has experimented with the steeplechase this year with little success, running only 9:01 at the Oregon Relays.

Watch the archived races of the OXY Invite here on Flotrack!