Photos courtesy Photorun.net

800 Men

1. Nick Symmonds

2. Tyler Mulder

3. Khadevis Robinson

 

With how clutch and consistent Nick Symmonds has been over the past several years, it just doesn't feel right coming into a National Championship 800 with so many questions about how he will fare. He popped a 1:45.09 in early March in Melbourne, but has struggled since. He is always expected to run well at Hayward Field, in front of his adopted home crowd, but he struggled in the Prefontaine Classic weeks ago. He also figures to have plenty of competition from any number of the great collegians that surfaced this outdoor season. Namely, Charles Jock and Robby Andrews figure to contend not only for a spot on the team, but for the win. Their racing styles provide even more intrigue, as Jock will undoubtedly take the race out fast early. Great for us fans, potentially troublesome for kickers like Symmonds and Andrews. While Andrews was just able to catch Jock for the win at NCAAs, it was too close for comfort. What it means is that, unlike the 1500 and above, we will probably have an incredibly fast winner and another close finish. 

 

In our poll question about who would win this race, Robby Andrews barely beat out Cory Primm as the favorite. I however, like Symmonds because of his experience and consistency. I am thinking that he has just been training through the entire spring outdoor season, and will start to put it all together as per usual.  For the same reason, I like Khadevis to make the team after the consistent year he's had…at 34 years old! Think about this…KD was born in 1976. According to iaaf.org, no one else in the world born in the 1970's has run faster than 1:47.38. Furthermore, this is the 14th straight year that Robinson has run 1:45 or faster. How's that for longevity?! Mulder doesn't quite have the resume, but his 2011 season has been consistent and he's running the best he ever has right now, dropping his PR from 1:46.32 to 1:44.83.

 

While I like Andrews and his competitiveness, I am a little wary of how he will handle the rounds after missing so much time indoors and this fall with injuries. However, it could work to his advantage as he shouldn't be burnt out like other collegians might be at this point. If he is right there at 500 meters, everyone in the field had better put the hammer down before the final straight.

 

800 Women

1. Alysia Johnson Montano

2. Phoebe Wright

3. Alice Schmidt

 

After 4 years of being in the 1:59 to 2:01 range, Alysia Johnson Montano broke out last year and ran 1:57.34, entering a whole different level. She started her season much later this year, choosing to wait until Prefontaine to open up. For a rust buster, she ran great in placing 4th (1:59.40). Will she be sharp enough just three weeks later to win? I think so, as she is the fastest runner in this field by almost a second if she is on her game. However, it's a deep field and the 800 is always wide open because of how tactical it is, so anything could happen. 

 

Phoebe Wright ran great in Eugene last year, setting a PR of over 2 seconds with her 1:58.22. She hasn't run quite as well this year yet, with a 1:59.98 season's best coming into the meet, but she has been consistent and should put it together this week. It will be a fun battle to see who makes this team, as Montano, Wright, Geena Gall, Molly Beckwith, Maggie Vessey and Alice Schmidt are all in the 1:59 to 2:00 range this year. Schmidt, like Wright, has had a consistently strong year. Her 2011 season has been a great rebound year, as she 2an only 2:01 last year and didn't race in 2009. Her PR of 1:58.75 is from Eugene (2007), so she's run well at Hayward before. I like Schmidt to use her experience to nab the third spot, but Vessey could very well prove me wrong here and make the team.

 

1500 Men

1. Andrew Wheating

2. David Torrence

3. Russell Brown

 

On paper, the US has been weak this year in the men's 1500, as no one has run an 'A' Standard of 3:35.50. However, that's more of an indication of most races being slow and tactical than the runners being incapable. Wheating ran 3:30 last year and Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong ran 3:32, so we could see potentially faster times here if the pace is honest (although I wouldn't bank on it). We all waited anxiously to see if Wheating would run the 800 or the 1500, and as we all expected he opted for the 15. Although he hasn't raced much, and hasn't popped a fast 8 or 15 yet this year, I don't see him having any problems in this race. When you are a 3:30 guy with a huge kick, racing at home, you are in pretty good shape.

 

More interesting could be the race for 2nd and 3rd. 

 

David Torrence has looked great of late, particularly two weeks ago when he won the NY Grand Prix in 3:36.15. While I never would have thought about picking him over his training partner Leonel Manzano a year ago, he has come on so strong and been so consistent that I can't see him not making this team. While I expect Manzano to bounce back and run solid this week, I still like Russell Brown of the OTC to finish top 3. Brown ran a huge PR of 3:51.45 mile at Prefontaine and he has the country's 2011 season best at 3:35.70 (a close win over Chris Solinsky). A big wildcard is Lopez Lomong. Can he return to last year's form this week? If so, he could actually contend for the win.

 

1500 Women

1. Christin Wurth-Thomas

2. Morgan Uceny

3. Treniere Moser

 

There may have been no indecision with this pick if Wurth-Thomas wasn't tripped up at Prefontaine with 200 meters to go. If she wins that race against that caliber of competition, she'd be nearly impossible to bet against. I think she'll be motivated to redeem her performance and win a USA title. She ran great at Rome nearly a month ago in posting the fastest time by an American this year (4:03.72). Furthermore, she is the fastest in the field by 3 seconds if you compare 2010 seed marks. She will be incredibly tough for anyone in this country to beat.

 

Morgan Uceny is my pick to give her the best run. Uceny looked terrific at Prefontaine, displaying a huge kick that nearly helped her capture an improbable win. She is running the best track of her career, as she has built upon a breakout 2010 year that saw her run 1:58.67 for the 800 and 4:02.40. I like her closing speed if (and when) the race sticks together until the final 200 meters.

 

Moser is my underdog pick, if you can call a 1:59/4:03 runner an underdog. She ran a 4:07 and looked good at Prefontaine against a world-class field just weeks back. Being in the same training group as Manzano and Torrence…I'm going Austin Track Club all the way. Speaking of which, can ATC's Shannon Rowbury put it all together and make the team? Very possible.

 

3k Steeple Men

1. Dan Huling

2. Billy Nelson

3. Kyle Alcorn

 

Huling is tough to pick against after the monster 2010 he had. Particularly after Prefontaine, where he looked close to being back to form. His time was only 8:25.95, but there was such separation from the Africans that it probably wasn't advantageous to Huling (or any other American in that race). His 2010 best of 8:13 is on an entirely different level than anyone else in the field, so if he races to capability he should be fine to make the team.

 

Billy Nelson ran a great 8:22.44 at Payton Jordan in out-dueling Kyle Alcorn (8:23.27), and I expect the two to do the same at USA's. While I am not confident with who will win this race, I feel good about picking these three to finish 1-2-3. However, with seasoned veterans like Steve Slattery and Ben Bruce, you just never know.

 

3k Steeple Women

1. Bridget Franek 

2. Emma Coburn

3. Lisa Aguilera

 

Last year at the NCAA Championships in Eugene, Franek dominated the steeple field and won by 13 seconds, over a young Emma Coburn. In just over a year, has Coburn made up the difference? It will be a little closer this time around, that's for sure. Franek is still my pick to win, as she ran 8:32 last year and just ran 8:38 at the NY Grand Prix.

 

But Coburn could be right there, as she has done nothing but won steeples all year and been untouched in most of them. Coburn hasn't had to produce a too-notch kick in any of her races, as she has put away most of her steeples pretty early. So it will be interesting to see what happens if the race is tight with 400 to go. I still like the strength and impeccable form over the barriers that Coburn displays.

 

Because of Lisa Aguilera's 2010 season, I am picking her to make this team. However, she hasn't looked like the same runner yet in 2011. Her season's best of 9:43.95 is nearly 20 seconds slower than she ran last year, after all. But like I've stated with all of these elite veterans, you just don't know if they showed all of their cards yet. I expect Aguilera to make the team and continue to race well in to the summer.

 

5k Men

1. Bernard Lagat

2. Chris Solinksy

3. Matt Tegenkamp

 

I am playing this one by the books, as these three are a level above anyone else in the race if they are on their game. Lagat is perhaps the easiest pick of the entire meet to make the team, as he never really runs bad and has the championship experience that would make any other athlete in this meet blush. He also is coming off a loss at the NY Grand Prix, so expect him to be fired up even more (OK, he probably doesn't need any more incentive than winning another National Title and potentially a Worlds team, but it can't hurt.) 

 

It should be stated that I am making a Solinsky pick under the assumption that he will scratch from the 10k, not the 5k. It will be interesting to see which he chooses. I would think that with his hamstring being an issue all spring, he'll opt for the shorter race. If so, I expect him to make the team, but I don't think Lagat will be touched because I don't have complete confidence in his full health. I have to think his focus will be on making the team and continuing to get 100% by Worlds.

 

Tegenkamp has been under the radar of sorts ever since Solinsky's emergence, but he has quietly had a pretty good year. He debuted with a strong 10k at Payton Jordan (27:28) and has run 3:36.12 and 13:16 this year. Remember, last time there was a world championships, Teg ran 12:58 that year (2009). He has the experience and resume to make the team and even make noise at Worlds if he gets there. Futhermore, Teg looked good in the 2-mile at Prefontaine, kicking to a solid 8:15 off of a very slow early pace. He should be ready to go.

 

5k Women

1. Molly Huddle

2. Jennifer Barringer Simpson

3. Amy Hastings

 

The women's 5k and 10k races are nearly impossible to predict, because almost every top seed is entered in both. The race will play out completely differently if Shalane Flanagan and Desiree Davila opt to run the 5k, not to mention Kara Goucher, but these picks are assuming they'll all choose the 10k.

 

Huddle is the American Record holder and proved at Mt. Sac that she has the finishing speed to kick with anyone, as she blasted Barringer Simpson in the last 300 meters. I like her to win in similar fashion here, as I see the race coming down to these two for the win. Hastings is not entered in the 10k, and just ran 15:19 in Portland, so we know she will be a contender. With her strength, she should be able to hang with Huddle and Simpson as they all potentially pull away from the rest of the field.  

 

10k Men

1. Galen Rupp

2. Tim Nelson

3. Bobby Curtis

 

Rupp shouldn't have too much trouble making the team here if he is 100% and the pollen levels are normal. He hasn't raced much, but Rupp has proven time and time again that he can race well off of minimal tuneups. While he hasn't raced a 10k yet this spring, he should be able to call upon his half-marathon strength and use the home crowd to help him along. However, Bobby Curtis and Tim Nelson have both run sub-27:30, so if he is rusty expect one of them to capitalize. Nelson has been a model of consistency while training with Schumacher's group just up the road in Portland. He has run 27:28, 27:31, 27:36 the past three years, so he should be a pretty safe pick to make the team here if he has a good day. 

 

Conversely, Scott Bauhs has been a little more unpredictable the past few years while training at Mammoth. The former Chico State star ran 27:48 in 2008, but hasn't matched it since. However, he ran a solid 27:51 this year at Payton Jordan and could be a contender to make the team if any of the top 3 here are off.

 

10k Women

1. Shalane Flanagan

2. Kara Goucher

3. Desiree Davila

 

Shalane Flanagan could probably double and win both, but I am thinking she'll focus on the 10, as this is presumably her best chance to make noise at the world level. At any rate, she should be able to capture this win with relative ease. Flanagan's 30:39 is head and shoulders above anyone else in the field (if you don't count Goucher's 30:55 from 2008). I just don't see anyone hanging with Flanagan after about 8 or 9k if she starts to hammer.

 

However, Davila proved at the Boston Marathon that she is not afraid of anyone, so if she has mixed in some speedwork with her tremendous strength, she could be a player. She showed great speed two years ago when she was 10th in the world in the indoor 3k. Her emergence as an international star is all the more interesting considering she mixes it up at many different events and always seems to put her neck out there.

 

Goucher (quietly?) has run 15:1 over 5k this year so she very well could go that route, but I am going to assume she'll be picking the 10k because of her marathon strength and past success at the world level over 10 kilometers.