This week we'll take a look at the Central region.

Men’s Teams
Last year the region got two at-large bids to nationals, but no Central region squads finished in the top 20 at nationals. They could have trouble getting two bids again this year, especially since many top teams graduate important scorers. However, the parity in the region makes it hard to know how many teams deserve berths: the two at-large teams last year both beat the two automatic qualifying teams at nationals, and the fifth place team was a mere 14 points out of second, so who knows how well they could have done had they been given the chance.

5. St. Thomas
The Tommies bring back their entire top five from last year’s eighth place squad, and almost all varsity members showed some solid progression in track season. It might be a bit much to dream of winning the title as they did in 2009, but they seem to be in much better shape than last year’s results indicate. Assuming cross country runner-up Ben Sathre bounces back from an injury that caused him to miss the outdoor season, St. Thomas will only need to worry about scoring four runners. They’ll need some solid improvement from CJ Seifert and Brian Farley to justify this ranking, but I expect that they’ll get just that.

4. Grinnell
Last year’s regional champs could be hard pressed to return to nationals, let alone repeat their impressive 36 point victory. They graduate three of their top five and don’t appear to have to have the depth to ensure a smooth rebuilding process. They do return two top-20 finishers, including the region’s top freshman (Frank Canady), but unless the Pioneers can find some help from incoming freshman or the rest of their squad, they won’t continue racing past regionals.

3. Luther
The Norse were the runners-up last year at regionals, but they also graduate three of their top five. Returning all-region runner Evan Neubauer and Austin Bauer should again lead their squad, but the emergence of 15-low 5k men Scott Mittman, Shane Steele, Marty Mitchell, and Andrew Papke-Larson should provide the depth needed for Luther to race all the way to Oshkosh and threaten for the regional crown.

2. Nebraska Wesleyan
This squad also loses three of its top five from last year, but the Prairie Wolves always are able to reload, and this year appears to be no different. The senior-laden squad will likely be led by 14:45 guy Ben Paben, but he will have lots of support from Mike Rathje, Jordan Rector, Cole Marolf, and the rest of this deep squad. Though they might not have the star power to come away with the regional title, I would be shocked if they didn’t finish in the top three.

1. Hamline
The region’s top squad at nationals returns five of their top seven, including cross country All-American Devin Monson.  Though they could struggle with depth, all-region returners Jack Diechert and Colin Rogers should again make up a strong supporting cast, and Nate Dobbins and Ellis Richardson both appear to be closing the gap between themselves and the top three.

Men’s Individuals
Last year the top two regional finishers were both juniors, but nine of the next eleven were seniors, leaving the top five fairly wide open. The top two returners were the region’s only All-Americans, but if a third (or fourth) runner can mix it up with those two, the region can expect to welcome home a few more individual All-Americans than last year.

5. Ben Paben (Nebraska Wesleyan)
After a second straight all-region season, Paben appears to be ready for a breakout senior fall. He posted stellar track times in 2010 (14:56), but didn’t improve from his 20th place regional finish sophomore year. However, this spring he continued to cut chunks off his 5k personal best (14:45 5k), and I expect this will be the year that his success translates to the cross country course

4. Ryan Edwardson (Simpson)
The rising senior’s much-improved 2010 cross country season culminated in a top ten regional finish and a berth to nationals. Though not quite as accomplished as Paben on the track, he did improve his 5k time by over 30 seconds (though he lost to two returning regional runners in that effort). A top three finish could prove difficult, but he should at least be able to punch his ticket to nationals for the second straight year.

3. Dan McDermott (Loras)
McDermott leads a squad that will also be fighting for a top five regional finish and a berth to nationals, though currently I think they are on the outside looking in. That being said, McDermott looks to be in a good position as an individual—he ran nearly a minute faster in the 5k than he did the previous track season, and he finished ninth in the region last year.  He and Edwardson each beat the other once at the IIAC meet, so they will likely be close together in cross country as well. Also, though I don’t have him in my top five, Scott Mittman of Luther beat both McDermott and Edwardson at the IIAC championship in the 5k, so he could be another one to look out for despite finishing only 60th in the region last year.

2. Devin Monson (Hamline)
Though he battled injuries during the track season, I expect this talented senior to be ready to roll come cross country. He was the regional runner-up and an All-American last year, and he will have a good shot at winning the regional title this year. However, a lot of that will be dependant on his health and that of the man he will be trying to dethrone.

1. Ben Sathre (St. Thomas)
Sathre was an All-American in 2009 and posted some solid track times that next season, but very few people expected him to come within a few seconds of a national title. However, he did just that as he finished second at cross country nationals this past year, making him the top returner. That success continued into the track season, as he posted solid personal bests and finished 5th in the 5k at indoor nationals. Unfortunately, he, too, battled injuries during the spring, and was never at full strength. Only time will tell if he has regained his form, but if he does, consider him one of the favorites to win the national title.

Women’s Teams
Last year, the region qualified four teams to nationals and placed three in the top fifteen. I would be shocked if the region qualified any less this year, especially after a relatively strong national showing, and they could be found deserving of a fifth team qualifier depending on how the season plays out.

5. Nebraska Wesleyan
Last year’s third place squad brings back their entire top seven, but I’m unconvinced that they can repeat their solid performance this upcoming season. For whatever reason, they only had one runner break 19 in the 5k or 40 in the 10k this outdoor season. They had a significantly better showing indoors, so it certainly is foolish to count them out, but I am wary of expecting too much from the Prairie Wolves.

4. Carleton
The Knights also brings back their entire top seven after a disappointing fifth place regional finish that ended their season as a team. Perennial contender Simone Childs-Walker appears to have bounced back well after a tough cross country season as she was an All-American in the indoor 5k, outdoor 5k, and outdoor 10k. Behind her come two more returning all-region runners, but they will need a few teammates to step up to ensure that they don’t miss out on nationals again this year.

3. Wartburg
Though they lose their top two from regionals, the Knights return their next five, and should again make it all the way to the national meet. Emily Eimers is the top returner and looks prepared to lead her squad after posting some solid mid-d results this track season (4:35). Laura Sigmund (17:27) should provide some support up front and if her success carries over to cross country, she could easily be a top five regional finisher. Wartburg can also depend on all-region returner Sami Bruett, but the real key will be the strength of their fourth and fifth scorers.

2. St. Olaf
St. Olaf also returns their entire top seven and appear to have more than enough depth to ensure a return trip to nationals. Cross country All-American Emma Lee will need some consistent help up front from Maren Westby, but behind that duo is a solid cast of mid-18 minute 5k-ers. Though that pack might be a bit too far back for the Oles to threaten for the regional title, I expect them to take home the second (and final) automatic qualifying slot.

1. Luther
We’ll start with the bad news: the Norse graduate three of their top five from last year’s regional squad. However, Luther not only dominated the region and secured a sixth place national finish, but they looked poised to reload for another run at the regional title. Frontrunner Emma Spoon returns, fresh off a solid track season, and she will certainly be hungry for success after finishing 36th at nationals last year. Behind her is a solid pack of Christina Storlie, Kayla Uphoff (who I would say is a dark horse candidate for a top five finish after a strong freshman track season), and Melissa Erickson, who should all be top 25 in the region this year. Finding a fifth piece of the puzzle could be the key to defending their regional crown and improving on their sixth place national finish.

Women’s Individuals
In contrast to the men, the women return seven of the top ten regional finishers but lose the champion and runner-up. The region got four All-Americans last year, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them equal or better that number this November.

5. Erin Statz (St. Thomas)
Statz is not even her team’s top returner, but she was the region’s top freshman and ran well enough in track to deserve a mention here, in my opinion. She scored solid points in both the 5k and the 10k at the MIAC championship and appears to be a reliable competitor who might be ready to mix it up with the top four.

4. Emma Spoon (Luther)
Though I only have her ranked fourth in the region, I expect Spoon to be an All-American should she stay healthy. A heartbreaking 36th place finish should provide some great motivation to crack the top 35 this year, and just in case that isn’t quite enough, she’ll also be the frontrunner for a team with podium aspirations.

3. Linda Keller (Minnesota-Morris)
The top returner from regionals didn’t improve on her 5k personal best from 2010, but only because she was focused entirely on the 1500. Her persistence paid off and after a string of victories, she finally qualified for the national meet. Though the end result might have been a bit disappointing, she should be well prepared to repeat or improve upon her All-American cross country campaign.

2. Emma Lee (St. Olaf)
The region’s top finisher at nationals (10th) also doesn’t get top billing despite cutting nearly two minutes off her 10k time and 30 seconds off her 5k time. She even qualified for nationals and almost ran a personal best, so I would say that she will almost certainly repeat her All-American performance and will be a threat to finish in the top ten or even higher again this year. That being said, she could have trouble winning the regional crown over this next runner.

1. Simone Childs-Walker (Carleton)
Childs-Walker is a perennial contender who hasn’t ever been able to come away with the big victory (though she has won her fair share of MIAC championships—over Emma Lee, too). She has finished between third and fifth in too many national and regional races to count, with her only poor showing coming last year at cross nationals, where she finished outside the top 100. Still, I feel like this has to be the year she gets a major victory. Though she may not win the national title, I expect her to at least come away with the regional one and finish in the top three to five (yet again) at nationals.

That’s it for the Central region! Check back in next Tuesday for a preview of the Atlantic region.