As the season draws closer, we’ll be taking a look at some of the division’s stronger regions. This week we take a look at the powerful Atlantic states of New Jersey and New York.

Men’s Teams
Last year’s big three of St. Lawrence, NYU, and SUNY Geneseo dominated the region and finished in the top 10 nationally, and they look even more dominant this year. Geneseo took home the regional title last year, but SLU was the surprise podium finisher. The region only got two at-large teams last year, but after last year’s strong national showing, there is certainly a case for awarding a third at-large bid. However, aside from the top three, the region looks weaker than in most years, which could make it difficult to get a fifth team qualified.

5. Rowan
Led by returning all-region runner Eric Dubois, the Owls bring back five of their top seven and with a little bit of luck could secure an at-large selection. DuBois appears poised for a breakout season after cutting 30 seconds off his 5k time (and was the first person left out of my individual top five listed below), but aside from him no returner broke 16 in the 5k during the outdoor season. Still, I expect the Owls to put their best foot forward during the fall.

4. The College of New Jersey (TCNJ)
The Lions appear to be the best of everyone but the big three. However, they will need to be ready this November as a bad race at regionals could bury them behind a slew of other nationals hopefuls. Luckily, TCNJ returns five of their varsity runners after their fifth place regional finish, including 14:47 5k runner Rob Nihen. The question is whether he will return to use his final year of cross country eligibility, as without him the Lions stand little chance of making it to Oshkosh in the fall.

3. New York University (NYU)
After a national championship in 2007 and a podium finish in 2009, the Violets suffered their fair share of disappointment last year. Though they did finish tenth in the nation, their program likely had higher hopes, and they also had the first two non-All-American finishers. The key to reestablishing their success will be the healthy return of frontrunner Andrew Zitek, who ran 8:20 in the 3k before missing the spring due to injury. After Zitek, the Violets return four of their next six, most of whom ran in the low- to mid- fifteens in track. Based on their depth but lack of additional frontrunners, NYU appears to be a cut above most of the region but a cut below the top two squads.

2. St. Lawrence
The Saints’ third place finish at nationals surprised almost everyone, but repeating that feat this year might be an even bigger surprise. They return their top two as well as their fourth and seventh runners, but their track season has me a bit concerned about their podium prospects. Frontrunner Steve Kiplagat came out of nowhere to finish fourth in the nation last year, but he faded just as quickly out of the spotlight during the outdoor season and only managed seasonal bests of 1:55 and 3:57. John Johnston (12th at nationals, 15:02, 30:46) and Seth Jackson (46th at nationals, 14:53) round out the division’s best returning top three, but neither was all that impressive during the outdoor season, either. Behind those three comes last year’s seventh man Sam Rakoc, who ran 15:15 and should be fairly dependable, but aside from him there appears to be a severe lack of depth for a team that would hope to challenge for the regional and national title. If they can find a fifth man somewhere, then SLU could be a serious contender, but until that missing piece shows up, I’m unconvinced that they can upend Geneseo, let alone the rest of the nation.

1. SUNY Geneseo
The defending regional champs lose four of their top seven, and for almost any other squad, this would have to be a rebuilding year. However, the Blue Knights don’t look like they will miss a beat. Despite having one of the division’s best returning duos in Lee Berube and Eddie Novara, Geneseo’s strength is its depth. They had eight returners at 4:05 or faster in the 1500, and though that doesn’t necessarily translate into cross country success, they also have 14:47 guy Tom Clark and 31:49 guy Chris Mateer, who did not race in the postseason last year and who should make an impact this year. The Blue Kinghts might be a bit of a long shot to bring home the national title, but if this team can take care of business, then I at least expect to see them on the podium.

Men’s Individuals
The region brought home nine All-American awards as well as the top two non-All-American finishers. Though six of those eleven graduate, the region could bring home nearly the same amount of brass this year.

5. James Vavra (Rochester)
Vavra gets the nod here over Rowan’s Dubois despite losing to him at regionals and having a significantly slower personal best in the 5k. However, I think Vavra deserves this place due to his incredible race at nationals last year: he finished only 18th in the region but put together a 28th place national finish to bring home All-American honors and help Rochester to a top 20 finish. Though his team will be pretty depleted this year, I expect him to continue to improve in the fall.

4. Andrew Zitek (NYU)
Zitek clearly has upside, as indicated by his 36th place national finish and his 8:20 3k clocking before succumbing to injury in the spring. If he returns to his mid-year form, he could even be a threat to win the regional crown. It will be interesting to see how he looks in his first few races, though, since a long layoff could spell trouble.

3. Eddie Novara (Geneseo)
An All-American and the region’s third place finisher last year, Novara will be attempting to help his team secure another regional crown and finish on the podium at Oshkosh. His track seasons inspire a decent amount of confidence heading into the fall, and barring injury, he should be a lock to finish in the region’s top five yet again.

2. John Johnston/Steve Kiplagat (St. Lawrence)
Johnston is the division’s seventh fastest returner in cross and put together an decent track campaign of his own, though came up just short of qualifying for nationals in the 10k. He appears to be a solid choice for a top twenty national finish. Kiplagat, on the other hand, is a huge question mark. As noted before, he came out of nowhere to finish fourth, making him the nation’s second fastest returner. However, his track season was less than impressive, leaving me wondering which of these two Saints will be the top dog.

1. Lee Berube (Geneseo)
A consistently impressive talent, Berube is the defending regional champ, finished eighth at nationals in cross country, and took home All-American honors in both the indoor and outdoor 5k. Though he is not the odds-on favorite to win the national title, if I had to put my money on one man, it would probably be him.

Women’s Teams
Last year the region got five teams to nationals, and though three of them finished in the bottom ten, the fifth and final qualifying team finished 15th, justifying their at-large selection. Given that performance and the fact that many top squads return most (if not all) of their scorers, this region could easily get a third at-large bid again this year. The question is do they have a team or two capable of cracking the top 10?

5. SUNY Plattsburgh
Plattsburgh returns their top six after last year’s fourth place regional finish, including their entire pack of five that finished between 22nd and 33rd. They’ll need to find a frontrunner if they want to contend with the region’s big three, but as long as their top five remain healthy and consistent, then they should again find themselves toeing the line at nationals.

4. The College of New Jersey (TCNJ)
Despite only finishing eighth at regionals last year, the Lions top six from last year are all returners that made serious improvements during the spring. Frontrunner Claire Johnson ran an impressive 17:21 and could factor into the discussion for the top five regionally. Meanwhile, Rachel Morris, only their sixth runner last year, also broke 18 minutes, with the rest of their varsity squad running almost as fast. The Lions have yet to prove that they can put together a solid cross country season, but if their successes from the spring carry over, they very well could upend one or more of the region’s three powerhouses.

3. St. Lawrence
The Saints only graduate one runner, but they will struggle to fill the void left by two-time national cross country champion Wendy Pavlus. Still, SLU has a ton of upside: they could return to the form that saw them finish second in the nation in 2009, with Jenna Hulton and Megan Derby both finishing in the top 40. However, there is at least some cause for alarm: after winning the region last year, they faded to 23rd at nationals. In addition, none of their returners broke 18:30 during the spring, making it pretty hard to justify ranking them ahead of TCNJ, who has five returners sub 18:40. That being said, I think that there are certain teams who step up their game in the fall, and SLU is definitely one of them.

2. New York University (NYU)
Despite losing three 2009 varsity members to injury and study abroad programs, the Violets still finished third in the region. In addition, they return their entire top six and should easily secure one of the two automatic bids to nationals; the question is whether they have enough firepower to take home the regional crown. Frontrunner Maeve Evans put together a stellar indoor season before struggling a bit outdoors, but I still expect her to be in the mix for the individual crown.  Throw in Paige Zelinsky (17:38) and you have one of the best top two in the nation.  The key could be if Kirsten Keller (17:32) returns to action, as she could be the missing piece NYU needs to steal the victory.

1. SUNY Geneseo
The Blue Knights were the region’s top team at nationals and return all of their top seven, including a very solid top two: Marissa Liberati and Alyssa Smith, both national qualifiers in the steeple who ran sub-10:40. A lack of depth could spell trouble, but the return of Brigid Heenan, 16th in the region in 2009, would bolster their chances of winning the region and returning to the nation’s top 10.

Women's Individuals
The region had four female All-Americans last year, including the national champion Wendy Pavlus. Three of them return (all except Pavlus) and all three look poised to repeat their performance from last year. In addition, there are a few others that look prepared to make the jump from regional to national contender.

5. Alyssa Smith (Geneseo)
Smith was only 15th at regionals last year, but raced much better at nationals and continued that trend into the spring. She finished fifth outdoors in the steeple, only a second behind teammate and cross country All-American Marissa Liberati. Though I don’t expect her to be that close to Liberati this fall, Smith should factor into the race for top five in the region.

4. Alyson Dalton (Cortland)
An All-American last year in cross country, Dalton returns to lead a team with dreams of getting back to nationals. However, the fate of her team mostly rests with the other four scorers as I can’t imagine that Dalton will finish outside the top five. After strong performances indoors, she was unable to match that success in the spring, but this fall I expect her to pick up where she left off at the end of last cross country season.

3. Jen Rawls/Jenna Peacock (Rowan)
Peacock has been Rowan’s cross country star the past two years, most recently finishing fifth in the region and 18th in the nation (making her the region’s top returner). This track season, she posted a nationals-qualifying time of 10:54 in the steeple. However, her teammate Jen Rawls might have the most upside, despite never racing at cross country nationals. She ran 16:41 in the 5k in 2009 (faster than anyone in the division ran this past year), and though she has not displayed that same level of fitness since then, she did have some success this outdoor season (17:17). This could be the year that she puts it all together on the cross country course.

2. Maeve Evans (NYU)
A seasoned veteran, Evans will be squaring off against the frontrunner of her team’s biggest rival in a battle that might not only decide the individual crown but the team title as well. After finishing third in the region last year, Evans struggled at nationals, but bounced back strongly during the indoor season and garnered All-American honors in the 5k (17:04). However, the outdoor season was not as kind, and she was unable to qualify for nationals. Still, I expect her to be in top form when November rolls around and secure an All-American certificate and another top three regional finish.

1. Marissa Liberati (Geneseo)
Liberati is not only a regional title contender, but a national one as well. The division’s top returner in the steeplechase was an All-American in cross country last year, and will be hoping to improve on her second place regional finish. With her team’s title aspirations as extra motivation, I see no reason why Liberati won’t take home the regional crown.

Check back in next week for another regional preview (probably of the Mideast)!