This week we take a look at the entirely unpredictable New England region.

Men’s Teams
Though New England was short on top end teams last year, it had more than its fair share of depth. Top ranked MIT came into the regional meet ranked ninth before emerging victorious, while the ultimate eighth place regional finisher was only 23 points out of third. The parity in the region appears to have only increased since last year, so we can expect more of the unexpected. Last year, the region only got two at-large bids, so even though the fifth place has a good shot at getting to nationals, it’s not a position anyone wants to be in.

Honorable Mentions (in alphabetical order):
As noted above, the region has an incredible amount of parity, and thus any of these teams have a chance of not only qualifying for nationals, but of winning the regional crown.

Bowdoin
Though they lose year’s top runner, they return five of their other varsity runners and should still be able to improve on last year’s seventh place finish with a bit more help from 8:58 high school 3200 runner Coby Horowitz, who despite a rough race at regionals ended his freshman year with some good experience and some solid performances in each season (25:17 at Franklin Park, 2:59 1200, 15:00 5k).  He and fellow sophomore Sam Seekins (8:31 3k) will be the young leaders of this talented squad.

Brandeis
The Judges certainly deserve to be among the top five after last year’s third place finish, but they only return three members of that squad, and I’m not convinced (yet) that they have the depth to match up with the rest of the region. Marc Boutin (15:39), Chris Brown (3:59), and Ed Colvin (8:32) should be a solid front three, and if they get help from Alex Kramer (8:32) they will be a threat for the regional title.

Connecticut College
Though not even in the top 10 last year, the Camels got a great track season out of NESCAC freshman of the year Michael LeDuc (9:03) and rising senior Doug Wright (31:18). That being said, they are included here largely because of a guy who has never run in a Conn College uniform. Canadian recruit Alex Mavrovic has run sub 14:30 already and could easily be a top five regional contender in his first year.

Wesleyan
After tying for fifth place last year, the Cardinals will likely struggle to match that success. However, their dynamic duo of Bryan Marsh (14:38i) and Skylar Cummins (14:44i) could be top five contenders individually, and if they get some help in terms of depth, Wesleyan could again surprise come November.

5. Tufts
The Jumbos finished eighth in the region last year, but only 23 points out of third, and they return six of their top seven. Based solely on track results, they could be the favorites, as they will have 10k All-American Matt Rand (30:26) leading the way, followed by a young and deep group of Liam Cassidy (14:57), Scott MacArthur (15:02), Kyle Marks (15:03), and Tyler Andrews (31:39) likely rounding out their scoring five.

4. Bates
After leaving their fate in the hands of the selection committee, the fifth-place Bobcats were regrettably left off the nationals start list. However, super-senior Devin Dilts (3rd regional returner) has elected to stick around and use his final year of eligibility, and along with the soon-to-be-sophomore duo of Noah Graboys (14:38i) and Tully Hannan (14:48i), Bates is more than capable of securing its fate by winning one of the two automatic bids to nationals. In order to make that dream a reality, though, Andrew Wortham will need to be healthy and the Bobcats will need to find a fifth man who can close the gap between himself and their front pack.

3. Middlebury
Last year’s NESCAC champions return five from their varsity squad, including defending individual champ Michael Schmidt (14:27). Behind Schmidt comes a young but experienced core of steeple All-American Jack Davies (9:01), Taylor Sundali, Greg Krathwohl (15:19), Nate Sans (15:18), and Anthony Lee (15:03). Clearly they have a solid amount of depth, but they will need some of that group to step up and run with other team’s second and third scorers in order to contend for an automatic bid to Oshkosh.

2. Williams
The traditionally powerful Ephs went through a bit of a rebuilding year last year, though they still finished second in the region and 18th in the nation. In addition, they return their entire top seven and will be looking to return to their success from 2008 (3rd at nationals) and 2009 (2nd). Regional runner-up Josephat Koima (14:32) will again be the team’s frontrunner, but many of their other returning varsity members were injured or abroad during parts or all of the indoor and outdoor track seasons. It will be interesting to see who emerges as scorers come November as Williams attempts to reclaim its place among the nation’s elite.

1. MIT
The Engineers stayed under the radar until November last year, but this year they come in as the defending champs and my preseason top-ranked squad. They have two of the top five regional returners in Dan Harper (31:35) and Roy Wedge (31:47), and along with Stephene Serene (9:22) they comprise an excellent top three. However, I was unconvinced that the Engineers could repeat—until I looked at their recruiting class. They have four guys who ran 9:20 or faster, and though high school success doesn’t always translate to collegiate success, I expect at least one or two of those guys to make an immediate impact.

Individuals
Similar to the team competition, the region was fairly deep but lacked national contenders last year—in fact, the region had no cross country All-Americans. However, that looks like it could change in a big way this year, as the top two individuals return and the rest of the region had a relatively strong showing during the track seasons.  Not included in this list are Bowdoin sophomores Sam Seekins and Coby Horowitz, Wesleyan juniors Bryan Marsh and Skylar Cummins, and Conn College runners Michael LeDuc and Alex Mavrovic, who all could easily factor into the front pack.


5. Devin Dilts/Noah Graboys/Tully Hannan (Bates)
The veteran Dilts is the cross country specialist amongst the three, but he did not race this track season, presumably to save eligibility. Meanwhile, young stars Graboys (14:38) and Hannan (14:48) were both exceptional during the indoor season. They had slightly less success outdoor, but I expect all three of these Bobcats to be ready to roll in the fall.

4. Dan Harper/Roy Wedge (MIT)
After finishing a surprising 11th and 12th in the regional meet, Harper and Wedge continued to step up when it mattered for MIT. Though they don’t have personal bests quite as good as some of the other contenders (15:07, 31:35 for Harper, 15:11, 31:47 for Wedge), they scored some important points for the engineers at the indoor and outdoor regional meets, including a third and first place finish (respectively) in the 10k.

3. Matt Rand/Kyle Marks (Tufts)
Rand was likely disappointed with how the fall ended, both for him and for the team, but he came back with a vengeance during the track seasons. After a solid though unspectacular indoor season, he continued to improve leading up to his final two races, where he qualified for the 10k at nationals in 30:26 before claiming All-American honors with a sixth place finish amongst an highly talented field. Marks, on the other hand, had a stellar cross season and was the region’s fourth finisher at nationals, though he was slightly less impressive than Rand outdoors.

2. Josephat Koima (Williams)
After an All-American cross country campaign in 2009, Koima struggled a bit at nationals this year and was only 81st. However, he was the regional runner-up the week prior and put together an overall impressive cross country campaign. On the track, he focused more on the longer distances than in years prior and came away with a 14:32 personal best and a trip to track nationals, where he finished 13th.

1. Michael Schmidt (Middlebury)
The defending regional champ had a great cross country season, though he came up just short of All-American honors. However, during the track season he continued to improve, ultimately posting personal bests of 14:27 and 30:38 before claiming the final All-American place in the outdoor 5k. Though he will certainly have to work to retain his individual crown, the most interesting question to me will be whether Schmidt can make the jump from being a regional title contender to a national one this upcoming season.

Women’s Teams
The New England region, at least last year, was by far the strongest region on the women’s side. Last year the only four teams qualified to race at nationals, but all four finished in the top eight, including national champion Middlebury. After a tumultuous summer, it will be interesting to see how the region plays out this year, but expect at least two (if not more) at-large bids again this year, and know that whoever wins this region will likely be the favorite at nationals.

5. Colby
Despite stealing fifth place from Keene State by only a point, the Mules were still left off the starting line at nationals last year. After the region’s display at nationals, last year, though, a fifth place finish could be just enough this year. Still, they have their work cut out for them if they plan to fend off Keene State and Wellesley, among others. The Mules lose only one from last year’s varsity squad and appear to have a fair amount of depth. However, they will need someone to help out frontrunner Amy Tortorello if they want to contend with the region’s elite.

4. Williams
The Ephs finished fifth at nationals last year, but they could have trouble replicating that performance. Junior Annie Dear, the division leader in the 5k during the outdoor season, broke her leg during the 10k at nationals and thus will be missing the cross country season. Teammate and 5k and 10k national champion Jennifer Gossels will also be sitting this season out, meaning the Ephs will have to rely on some of its younger members to carry the team this year. Still, with 10k All-American Chiara Del Piccolo (35:57) leading the way, Williams matches up favorably with almost any other team in the nation based on track results, and I still consider them to be among the nation’s elite.

3. MIT
After finishing fourth in the region the previous year, MIT performed well on the biggest stage and earned a spot on the podium with their third place nationals finish. However, they lose two of their top five and might not have the depth to replace those key losses. They have a solid core of returners that have proven themselves on the cross country course, but the Engineers will collectively need to outperform this past year’s track results if they want to mix it up with the region’s and nation’s top squads.

2. Amherst
The Lord Jeffs edged MIT for third place in the region before finishing “only” eighth at nationals. However, they return four of their top five and appear to have an excellent mix of frontrunners (Ali Simeone and Melissa Sullivan are both among the top 20 returners from nationals last year) and depth (they have eight returners who have run 18:30 or faster for 5k). Though I don’t even consider them the regional favorite, I would be shocked to see them anywhere but the podium this November.

1. Middlebury
The Panthers are the defending national champs, but their top finisher at nationals, Colette Whitney, is transferring, leaving Middlebury slightly vulnerable this season. However, they have an almost infinite amount of capable scorers on their roster, highlighted by Addie Tousley (17:29) and Margo Cramer (4:23), and should be considered the preseason favorite for not just the regional but the national title as well.

Women’s Individuals
Last year the region had six top-35 finishers and only graduates three of the top twenty from the regional meet. However, the region will also be losing preseason favorite Jennifer Gossels, the division’s top freshman at nationals Carolyn Baskir, the defending champion’s top runner Colette Whitney, and the division leader in the outdoor 5k Annie Dear, which makes the individual title picture much less predictable. That being said, the individual winner will still almost certainly be among the top five in the nation and should be considered a threat to win the title.

5. Addie Tousley/Margo Cramer (Middlebury)
These two will likely be leading Middlebury’s stellar pack. Tousley was a 2009 cross country All-American and will attempt to return to the top 35 after just missing in her sophomore campaign. Meanwhile, Cramer will look to continue her track success into the fall. She is the sixth fastest 1500 runner in D3 history and would be someone to look out for if the race becomes tactical.

4. Chiara Del Piccolo (Williams)
Del Piccolo had a solid freshman cross country campaign before really breaking onto the national scene with her sixth place, sub 36 clocking in the 10k at nationals. If that carries over onto the cross country course, then she could easily be considered the favorite. Only time will tell if she can hold her own with the more established cross country veterans, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her in the hunt for the regional title.

3. Randelle Boots (Wellesley)
Though more of a 1500 specialist, Boots showed great improvement in her sophomore year cross country campaign. She finished 25th at nationals before going on to win the national championship in the mile and place third in the 1500. If she continues to make big strides as she enters her third collegiate cross country season, she is definitely a regional and national title contender. She and teammate Leah Clement (10:41) will also be attempting to lead their team to an at-large bid to nationals, providing Boots with extra motivation to pick up points.

2. Ali Simeone (Amherst)
Simeone finished twelfth at the national meet and went on to place tenth in the indoor 5k before missing the outdoor season due to injury. Her health will be a question until she proves she has come back strong, but assuming she can be just as good (if not better) than last year, consider Simeone on the short list of national title contenders.

1. Paige Mills (Keene State)
The similarities between Mills and Simeone are almost uncanny as we head into the fall season. Mills also excelled on the cross country, coming very close to winning the region and finishing fifth at the national meet, and she qualified for nationals in the indoor 5k. However, she too missed the outdoor season due to injury and will also be a bit of a question mark at the beginning of the season. Still, she will be hungry for another shot at the regional crown, and she and fellow Owl Andrea Walsh (17:31, 36:59, 10:44) will have the added incentive of trying to upend Colby and potentially steal the third and final at-large qualifying spot.

That’s it for New England. Check back in next Monday for the final regional preview: the Midwest (which might include my national rankings as well). If you’re curious to see how my previews compare to what the USTFCCCA thinks, the first regional rankings can be found here starting Tuesday the 23rd with the national rankings coming out the following day.