2012 USA Olympic Marathon Trials Houston

Wait A Second... Did The Teacher Change The Assignment????

Jan 5, 2012 by Kevin Selby

Did you ever complete a assignment in school and proudly submit it in feeling confident about your work? Then just as you turn to go back to your desk you realized the teacher changed the instructions for the assignment, and your work is useless.

I had a similar feeling when I read that Galen Rupp pulled out of the Olympic Trials Marathon. The difference was that I do not hold one ounce of resentment towards Rupp that I might have for my teacher.

Last week I put together a piece discussing why it Rupp should be able to handle the field at the Trials. I appreciate his desire to stay on the track and hope that big performances come his way in 2012.

It is still fasincating to think of Rupp running stride for stride with Hall, Meb, and Ritz through 30k. Enjoy the read below. Only if...

Why Galen Rupp Will Crush (Everyone?) At The Olympic Trials Marathon

Let’s assume that Galen Rupp is entered in the Olympic Trials Marathon on January 14 in Houston with the intention of winning the race. I have a hard time seeing him step to the starting line to pace his training partner Dathan Ritzenhein or only complete part of the distance. With the assumption of a full effort, Galen Rupp will do nothing less than qualify for the US team in convincing fashion.

Let’s also assume that he is ready to forfeit six figure debut appearance fees from a major marathon for the chance to earn an Olympic medal. A medal would prove to be lucrative for Rupp for the rest of his career.

There is plenty of evidence to show that he is ready. Here are the positive forces in Rupp’s corner.

Coach
Rupp has a rare coaching situation in several ways. He has been guided continuously by Alberto Salazar since prep days at Central Catholic HS in Portland. In nearly 10 years together, Rupp has developed into the fastest non-African 10,000 meter runner in history. With three victories at both New York and Boston in his own career, Rupp could not have a better marathon resource than Salazar in his corner.

Kara Goucher
In November of 2008, Kara Goucher came off of the Olympic Games and placed third at the NYC marathon in 2:25:53, the fastest debut by an American. Salazar was Goucher’s coach at the time, and he knew she was ready for the move up in distance as Kara discussed at the end of her post-Olympic interview with Flotrack. Goucher was in the hunt in that race and demonstrated excellent preparation. The same can be expected from Rupp.

Dathan Ritzenhein
Ritz debuted in the marathon in a tough way, running 2:14:01 at NYC in 2006. At the time Ritz worked with Brad Hudson, and now both Ritz and Rupp are coached by Salazar. Most first time marathoners who struggle can point to a key mistakes that, in reflection, are easy to correct. For Ritz, one adjustment was fueling. He made some changes and improved to a 9th place finish at the Bejing Olympics. Hopefully these lessons have been shared with Rupp.

Foundation
In regards to marathon preparation, Rupp’s body of work over the last five years has been exceptional. He has not missed significant time with injury and has shown progress in training and racing each season. His strength as a result of solid training was most evident in 2009 as he raced a ton as a senior at Oregon, won the USATF 10k, and ran 27:37.99 at the Berlin World Championships to place 8th.

Racing
Few athletes worldwide have the consistency at longer distances like Galen Rupp. The only American who has been as steady is Bernard Lagat. He placed 11th, 8th, and 7th in the past three WC 10ks and was 13th at the Olympics where he regularly placed among the fastest non-Africans.

In looking at marathon potential, a more important factor than results may be Rupp’s racing style. He demonstrates incredible patience each time he races. The first time he broke 14 for 5k as a HS senior was at the 2004 Cardinal Invite. In a B heat he dueled with Stanford All-American Adam Teneford. Even at 18 years old he stayed cool in a hotly contested race and threw a surge just at the right time to win in 13:55.32.

This racing style continues to work for Rupp as he has developed into one of the world’s best runners. There would likely a medal in his possession if he was blessed with more natural speed. While speed is not his strongest asset at the international level, he has the ability to out kick anyone in the Olympic Trials Marathon field. His speed was displayed at the USATF 10k Championships where he closed in 1:52 over the last 800.

Half Marathon Debut
The only negative mark on Rupp’s marthon resume is experience. The 2011 NYC Half Marathon is his only race over 10k. There he ran 60:30 to place third to Mo Farah (60:24) and Gebre Gebremariam (60:25). While not considered the fastest course, quick time have been registered at NYC in the past two years. The 2011 version featured temperatures in the mid 30’s at the start.

Rupp’s pace at NYC was 4:38. It is reasonable to think that he could handle marathon pacing 10 seconds slower per mile, which would be a target pace for Ryan Hall (4:48 pace = 2:05:46). I think that if a group went out at 63:00, Rupp would be in position to run just as fast for the second half.

Conclusion
Galen Rupp has the resources to run a great marathon. His coach Alberto Salazar has surrounded him with outstanding knowledge and great teammates. The result of this environment is five straight years with track 10ks under 27:38, four international finals, and the American record of 26:48.00. Though he has only run one half marathon, it was a race with first class competition requiring resiliency (Rupp fell at mid race).

Rupp’s best distance is the 10k. The problem is that he cannot kick with the world’s best at that distance. A move to the marathon (though I love to see him on the track) is probably best if he wants a medal. That change starts in Houston on January 14, and Galen Rupp should have little trouble defeating a great field of American marathoners.